2013 November Nine Odds


[SS] “Bovada has posted Final Table odds. Time to put your money where your mouth is!” Stan the Stat exclaimed. “As most of you know, according to the Independent Chip Model, a player’s odds of a winning a tournament are directly proportional to how many chips he has. So, I compared the Vegas odds1 for this year’s November Nine with their ICM chances of finishing in first (and every other place for completeness):

Player 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th Bovada
Odds
2
Percent
With Vig
3
True
Percent
ICM
Percent
Diff
J.C. Tran 19.9% 18.2% 16.3% 14.2% 11.9% 9.2% 6.2% 3.2% 0.9% 1.8/1 35.7% 27.9% 19.9% 8.0%
Amir Lehavot 15.6% 15.2% 14.7% 14.0% 13.0% 11.4% 8.9% 5.4% 1.9% 4.5/1 18.2% 14.2% 15.6% -1.4%
Marc-Etienne McLaughlin 13.9% 13.9% 13.8% 13.6% 13.2% 12.2% 10.2% 6.6% 2.6% 5/1 16.7% 13.0% 13.9% -0.9%
Jay Farber 13.6% 13.7% 13.7% 13.5% 13.2% 12.3% 10.4% 6.9% 2.7% 7.5/1 11.8% 9.2% 13.6% -4.4%
Ryan Riess 13.6% 13.6% 13.6% 13.5% 13.2% 12.4% 10.4% 6.9% 2.7% 6/1 14.3% 11.2% 13.6% -2.4%
Sylvain Loosli 10.3% 10.8% 11.3% 12.0% 12.7% 13.5% 13.4% 10.8% 5.4% 8/1 11.1% 8.7% 10.3% -1.6%
Michiel Brummelhuis 5.9% 6.4% 7.2% 8.2% 9.6% 11.8% 15.7% 18.9% 16.1% 12/1 7.7% 6.0% 5.9% 0.1%
Mark Newhouse 3.9% 4.3% 4.9% 5.8% 7.0% 9.1% 13.0% 21.2% 30.8% 15/1 6.3% 4.9% 3.9% 1.0%
David Benefield 3.3% 3.8% 4.3% 5.1% 6.3% 8.1% 11.9% 20.1% 37.0% 15/1 6.3% 4.9% 3.3% 1.5%
Totals 127.9% 100.0% 100.0%

Because of the high vig (almost 28%), only one player has better ICM odds to win than Vegas is laying, and not surprisingly it’s the only amateur of the nine, Jay Farber.”

“On the flip side, chip leader J.C. Tran has the worst odds relative to his stack. He’s the most experienced pro at the table, but is he really twice as likely to win as Lehavot and McLaughlin, who have about three-quarters of his chips? I’d take the second and third place players even-up against the first. It will only take one medium-sized pot for either of them to take over the chip lead.”

[RR] “Lehavot and McLaughlin have Tran on their left, which is bad for them. Position helps Farber, who has three of the four smallest stacks on his left. The odds don’t change anything for me, since it’s a sentimental pick anyway.”

[YY] “That’s just one piece of data though”, Yuri the Young Gun countered. “Riess currently probably has the worst position at the table, but if Newhouse, Brummelhuis, and Loosli either build their stacks or bust out, everything changes. I’d love to get Riess at his real odds. He definitely has a better than one in nine chance of winning.”

[LL] “Well, I wouldn’t place a Vegas bet at those odds, but I’d be happy to get the true odds on Tran and Lehavot”, Leroy the Lion confirmed.

[SS] “Well, we can have a pool and do exactly that. Back whichever player or players you want and put in the Bovada Percent4 in dollars as your bet.”

[RR] “Huh?”

[SS] “Tran would cost you $35.71, Lehavot $18.18, McLaughlin $16.67, Farber $11.76, and Riess $14.29.”

[LL] “But you and I both want Lehavot, so we should each put in $9.09, since we’d only win half the pot.”

[SS] “Right, you’d put in a total of $44.80 for your two players, I’d put in $25.76 for my two, Rod $11.76, and Yuri $14.29 for a total pot of $96.61. Winner take all except if Leroy and I split.”

[RR] “Void if another player wins, or do we give the prize to the highest finisher?”

[SS] “No bet. Nobody deserves to win then.”

[LL/RR/SS/YY] “Agreed!”

Footnotes:

  1. The odds above are the opening lines. The most recent odds can be found between now and November 4, 2013 at Bovada. As of this post, the odds had already changed on Farber (down to 7/1) and Brummelhuis (up to 13/1).

    The number of chips each player started with were 38,000,000, 29,700,000, 26,525,000, 25,975,000, 25,875,000, 19,600,000, 11,275,000, 7,350,000, and 6,375,000 respectively.

  2. Bovada uses only whole numbers, but for ease of comparison, this column is normalized. Tran opened at 9/5, Lehavot 9/2, and Farber 15/2.
  3. The Percent With Vig is simply the denominator of the odds divided by the sum of the numerator and denominator. The True Percent normalizes this by dividing by the total of 127.92%.
  4. Using the True Percent would be qualitatively the same, as would multiplying each of the percentages by any other constant.

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