2014 November Nine Odds


[YY] “Leroy, thanks for your donation”, Yuri the Young Gun teased, referring to their recent wager.

[LL] “They say, ‘Bet with your head, not your heart’,” Leroy the Lion admitted, “but I didn’t expect that the oldest November Niner would be only 31 years old!”

[SS] “That’s the lowest it’s ever been,” Stan the Stat noted, “although the average age of just under 28 was about a year older than in 2010, when 37-year-old Soi Nguyen was the only player in his 30s.”

[SS] “Actually, I feel pretty lucky that three of this year’s final table are 30 (Dan Sindelar) or 31 (Jorryt van Hoof and Bruno Politano); every other November Nine had one to three players over 35. Otherwise, the profile fits the usual mold with one to five foreigners (5 this year) and one to three amateurs (2 this year).”

[YY] “The bet between us is now almost perfectly even. You have the chip leader (van Hoof), middle man (Sindelar) and cellar dweller (Politano), while I have twice as many players left at twice the cost.”1

[LL] “Since I’ve been eliminated, can I interest you guys in another bet like last year?”

November Nine Odds

Player 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th Carbon
Odds
2
Percent
With Vig
3
True
Percent
ICM
Percent
Diff
Jorryt van Hoof 19.1% 17.4% 15.6% 13.7% 11.6% 9.3% 6.9% 4.4% 2.0% 2.5/1 28.6% 21.9% 19.1% 2.7%
Felix Stephensen 16.3% 15.6% 14.6% 13.5% 12.1% 10.4% 8.4% 6.0% 3.1% 3.5/1 22.2% 17.0% 16.3% 0.7%
Mark Newhouse 13.0% 13.0% 12.9% 12.6% 12.3% 11.6% 10.5% 8.7% 5.6% 4/1 20.0% 15.3% 13.0% 2.3%
Andoni Larrabe 11.2% 11.5% 11.7% 11.9% 12.0% 11.9% 11.5% 10.4% 7.8% 7/1 12.5% 9.6% 11.2% -1.7%
Dan Sindelar 10.6% 10.9% 11.2% 11.5% 11.8% 12.0% 11.9% 11.2% 8.9% 7/1 12.5% 9.6% 10.6% -1.0%
Billy Pappas4 8.7% 9.2% 9.7% 10.3% 11.0% 11.8% 12.7% 13.5% 13.1% 10/1 9.1% 7.0% 8.7% -1.8%
William Tonking 7.5% 8.0% 8.6% 9.3% 10.2% 11.3% 12.8% 14.9% 17.3% 12/1 7.7% 5.9% 7.5% -1.6%
Martin Jacobson 7.4% 7.9% 8.5% 9.3% 10.2% 11.3% 12.8% 15.0% 17.6% 7.5/1 11.8% 9.0% 7.4% 1.6%
Bruno Politano 6.0% 6.6% 7.2% 7.9% 9.0% 10.3% 12.4% 15.9% 24.6% 15/1 6.3% 4.8% 6.0% -1.3%
Totals 130.6% 100.0% 100.0%

[SS] “I have a slightly different bet to propose, since it’s just the three of us. Looking at the odds, you can break the November Nine into three almost exactly even groups: van Hoof, Tonking, and Politano; Stephensen, Sindelar, and Pappaconstantinou; and Newhouse, Larrabe, and Jacobson. By the true odds, each group has within a percent of one in three chance of winning.”5

[YY] “I’d rather have both Larrabe and Stephensen, but given those groups, I’d have to pick Newhouse, Larrabe, and Jacobson, three of my picks in the other bet.”

[LL] “I’m a foosball player, so I’d be happy to take Stephensen, Sindelar, and Pappas.”

[SS] “Leaving me with the two 31-year-olds, van Hoof and Politano, along with Tonking instead of Sindelar, so the Main Event was the fourth career WSOP cash for each of my guys.”

[LL] “This is like a rebuy for me, so can we make that the wager?”

[SS/YY] “Sure!”6

Footnotes:

  1. The number of chips each player started with from most to least were 38,375,000, 32,775,000, 26,000,000, 22,550,000, 21,200,000, 17,500,000, 15,050,000, 14,900,000, and 12,125,000.
  2. Carbon Poker’s original odds were given in +250 format on July 18, 2014. Since then, Sindelar has dropped from +700 to +550.
  3. The Percent With Vig is simply the denominator of the odds divided by the sum of the numerator and denominator. The True Percent normalizes this by dividing by the total of 130.59%.
  4. Billy Pappas’s full name is William Pappaconstantinou.
  5. The actual totals are 32.55%, 33.55%, and 33.90%.
  6. With Jacobson’s victory, Yuri the Young Gun won the bet.

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