2014 November Nine Odds


[YY] “Leroy, thanks for your donation”, Yuri the Young Gun teased, referring to their recent wager.

[LL] “They say, ‘Bet with your head, not your heart’,” Leroy the Lion admitted, “but I didn’t expect that the oldest November Niner would be only 31 years old!”

[SS] “That’s the lowest it’s ever been,” Stan the Stat noted, “although the average age of just under 28 was about a year older than in 2010, when 37-year-old Soi Nguyen was the only player in his 30s.”

[SS] “Actually, I feel pretty lucky that three of this year’s final table are 30 (Dan Sindelar) or 31 (Jorryt van Hoof and Bruno Politano); every other November Nine had one to three players over 35. Otherwise, the profile fits the usual mold with one to five foreigners (5 this year) and one to three amateurs (2 this year).”

[YY] “The bet between us is now almost perfectly even. You have the chip leader (van Hoof), middle man (Sindelar) and cellar dweller (Politano), while I have twice as many players left at twice the cost.”1

[LL] “Since I’ve been eliminated, can I interest you guys in another bet like last year?”

November Nine Odds

Player 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th Carbon
Odds
2
Percent
With Vig
3
True
Percent
ICM
Percent
Diff
Jorryt van Hoof 19.1% 17.4% 15.6% 13.7% 11.6% 9.3% 6.9% 4.4% 2.0% 2.5/1 28.6% 21.9% 19.1% 2.7%
Felix Stephensen 16.3% 15.6% 14.6% 13.5% 12.1% 10.4% 8.4% 6.0% 3.1% 3.5/1 22.2% 17.0% 16.3% 0.7%
Mark Newhouse 13.0% 13.0% 12.9% 12.6% 12.3% 11.6% 10.5% 8.7% 5.6% 4/1 20.0% 15.3% 13.0% 2.3%
Andoni Larrabe 11.2% 11.5% 11.7% 11.9% 12.0% 11.9% 11.5% 10.4% 7.8% 7/1 12.5% 9.6% 11.2% -1.7%
Dan Sindelar 10.6% 10.9% 11.2% 11.5% 11.8% 12.0% 11.9% 11.2% 8.9% 7/1 12.5% 9.6% 10.6% -1.0%
Billy Pappas4 8.7% 9.2% 9.7% 10.3% 11.0% 11.8% 12.7% 13.5% 13.1% 10/1 9.1% 7.0% 8.7% -1.8%
William Tonking 7.5% 8.0% 8.6% 9.3% 10.2% 11.3% 12.8% 14.9% 17.3% 12/1 7.7% 5.9% 7.5% -1.6%
Martin Jacobson 7.4% 7.9% 8.5% 9.3% 10.2% 11.3% 12.8% 15.0% 17.6% 7.5/1 11.8% 9.0% 7.4% 1.6%
Bruno Politano 6.0% 6.6% 7.2% 7.9% 9.0% 10.3% 12.4% 15.9% 24.6% 15/1 6.3% 4.8% 6.0% -1.3%
Totals 130.6% 100.0% 100.0%

[SS] “I have a slightly different bet to propose, since it’s just the three of us. Looking at the odds, you can break the November Nine into three almost exactly even groups: van Hoof, Tonking, and Politano; Stephensen, Sindelar, and Pappaconstantinou; and Newhouse, Larrabe, and Jacobson. By the true odds, each group has within a percent of one in three chance of winning.”5

[YY] “I’d rather have both Larrabe and Stephensen, but given those groups, I’d have to pick Newhouse, Larrabe, and Jacobson, three of my picks in the other bet.”

[LL] “I’m a foosball player, so I’d be happy to take Stephensen, Sindelar, and Pappas.”

[SS] “Leaving me with the two 31-year-olds, van Hoof and Politano, along with Tonking instead of Sindelar, so the Main Event was the fourth career WSOP cash for each of my guys.”

[LL] “This is like a rebuy for me, so can we make that the wager?”

[SS/YY] “Sure!”6

Footnotes:

  1. The number of chips each player started with from most to least were 38,375,000, 32,775,000, 26,000,000, 22,550,000, 21,200,000, 17,500,000, 15,050,000, 14,900,000, and 12,125,000.
  2. Carbon Poker’s original odds were given in +250 format on July 18, 2014. Since then, Sindelar has dropped from +700 to +550.
  3. The Percent With Vig is simply the denominator of the odds divided by the sum of the numerator and denominator. The True Percent normalizes this by dividing by the total of 130.59%.
  4. Billy Pappas’s full name is William Pappaconstantinou.
  5. The actual totals are 32.55%, 33.55%, and 33.90%.
  6. With Jacobson’s victory, Yuri the Young Gun won the bet.

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Texas Hold ‘Em for the Blind and Visually Impaired

[DD] “Did you guys notice Figaro the Fish trying to teach his nephew Flounder how to play Texas Hold ‘Em?” Deb the Duchess asked, still smiling from collecting her half-pot from their Main Event wager.

[RR] “I was very tempted to jump in to save the little guy from having to unlearn everything his uncle teaches him”, Roderick the Rock admitted. “But I managed to suppress the urge.”

[LL] “I don’t think they’d been here five minutes when I heard Figaro rambling on about coloring up, squeeze plays, and Post Oak bluffs”, Leroy the Lion added.

[TT] “You may think it’s the blind leading the blind / but the elder fish is sadly maligned”, Tyrone the Telephone complained.

[DD] “We’re just teasing him, you know.”

[RR] “Besides, what would Texas Hold ‘Em be without the blinds?”

[LL] “Even the blind can play Hold ‘Em.”

[SS] “Yeah, do you remember back in 2007, when Hal Lubarsky became the first blind player to cash in the World Series of Poker Main Event?” Stan the Stat contributed.

[RR] “I’m surprised I haven’t seen another blind player on TV since then. I guess that wasn’t enough to make the game popular in the blind and visually impaired community.”

[LL] “Braille playing cards and poker chips that come in different shapes aren’t that expensive, but I guess it’s still a big challenge to make sure you collect the entire pot and pick up all the cards each hand.”

[DD] “At least they have a great iPhone and iPad app to learn and practice Hold ‘Em with now. THETA Poker Pro has always been fully accessible, but most of the recent updates have been to improve accessibility. Apparently, you don’t even need to find your cards on the table to play anymore! I played with VoiceOver on for a while because it was cool to hear all the action announced, but sighted users gained that feature with iOS 7.”1

[RR] “So, Siri tells you what your hole cards are and announces the community cards and all the bets?”

[DD] “Yes. And the player who’s won the hand, their cards, and hand strength.”

[LL] “Can you ask Siri for advice on how to play the hand?”

[DD] “Very funny. You can tell her, ‘Launch THETA Poker’, but if you want more than that, try emailing the developer.”

[RR] “We’d certainly welcome blind players to our home tourney.”

[LL] “All new players for that matter. We’ll have Figaro teach them so they don’t get better than us too quickly.”

[TT] “When I find a blind player trying to steal my blind, I won’t be resigned / I’ll respond in kind, put him in a bind, take his chips with three-of-a-kind.”

Footnotes:

  1. Voice announcements were added to the game for iOS 7 users in Version 1.2.1 on September 23, 2013. Go to the “Options/Music & Sound/Announce” menu and select either “Messages Only” or “All”.

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Stan’s Lists – Youngest and Oldest WSOP Main Event Winners

[SS] “Until they change the law”, Stan the Stat started, “no World Series of Poker Main Event champion will be younger than 21. Joe Cada is the current record holder, taking down the coveted belt just eight days shy of his 22nd birthday.”

[LL] “When his record falls, it will be partly by the luck of what time of year the player was born”, Leroy the Lion commented.

[SS] “Cada left 357 days to work with, so it’s only a matter of time.”

[LL] “Having the final table in November does help his cause though; the youngest champion this year can only be 21 years, 4 months, and change since you had to be 21 when the Main Event started, not when the final hand is played.”

History of the Youngest WSOP Main Event Champion

Age Player Year
63 Johnny Moss 1970
43 Thomas Preston 1972
42 Doyle Brunson 1976
28 Bobby Baldwin 1978
26 Stu Ungar 1980
24 Phil Hellmuth 1989
221 Peter Eastgate 2008
212 Joe Cada 2009

[SS] “Hellmuth was the youngest champ for almost two decades, but five of the past six champs have been younger than he was: Eastgate and Cada above, Jonathan Duhamel (23 in 2010), Pius Heinz (22 in 2011), and Ryan Riess (23 in 2013). And Greg Merson was just 19 days older than him in 2012.”

[YY] “I’m already too old for this game!” cried Yuri the Young Gun.

[LL] “Don’t worry. You’ll always be a young whippersnapper to us.”

[SS] “On the other side, since Moss set the oldest winner record immediately and increased his record a couple of times, there’s no progression of that record to speak of. Instead, here are the ten oldest Main Event Champs:”

Oldest WSOP Main Event Champions

Age Player Year
66 Johnny Moss 1974
63 1971
62 1970
61 Noel Furlong 1999
52 Hal Fowler 1979
51 Jack Straus 1982
Bill Smith3 1985
50 Berry Johnston 1986
49 Dan Harrington 1995
464 Russ Hamilton 1984

[YY] “There’s hope for you old guys after all. The older you get, the higher up you can get!”

[SS] “Except that the most recent entry on the list is 1999! Only two champions since then have been over forty: Stu Ungar in 2001 (43) and Robert Varkonyi in 2006 (41).”

[LL] “Like Dan Harrington said, it’s an endurance contest now, which favors the younger players.”5

[YY] “Tough to have your dreams crushed like that, isn’t it?”

[LL] “Put your money where your mouth is, kid. Why don’t we bet on the age of this year’s champ. I’ll take the 40-year-olds and above, Stan can have the 30-year-olds, and you get the 20-year-olds.”

[SS] “Historically, that almost seems fair, as fourteen winners have been in their 20s, eleven in their 30s, and twelve in their 40s (with four 50s and four 60s). But if you look at things chronologically, Yuri has to give us some serious odds…”

[LL] “How about if I risk $5, you put in $10, and Yuri puts in $20; winner take all, okay?”

[SS and YY] “Okay!”6

Footnotes:

  1. Eastgate was 22 years, 10 months, and 28 days old.
  2. Cada was 21 years, 11 months, and 22 days old.
  3. Smith’s birthday is unknown; he may belong above or below Straus.
  4. Hamilton’s birthday is unknown; he might have been 45 years old.
  5. See the 2013 November Nine article.
  6. Yuri the Young Gun won the bet, as Martin Jacobson was 27 years old (six of this year’s November Nine were in their twenties, with the other three in their early thirties).
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Big One for One Drop 2014

[LL] “I’ve dreamt of playing in the World Series of Poker Main Event”, Leroy the Lion repeated, “but not even in my craziest fantasies have I considered dropping everything to play in the Big One for One Drop.”

[FF] “You’d have to sell everything you own,” Figaro the Fish commented, “which wouldn’t even be nearly enough in my case.”

[RR] “Even the best pros can’t enter the event at the drop of a hat”, suggested Roderick the Rock. “Most had to line up backers to lower their risk. Even the wealthy businessmen probably needed to shuffle their assets to arrange for a million dollars to enter.”

[FF] “It’s still incredible to me that those rich guys can drop a bundle to enter like it’s just a drop in the bucket to them.”

[LL] “Most of us would struggle just to come up with the deposit, which was $50,000!”

[SS] “Andrew Robl dropped a hint that he would play, but his early confirmation was premature as he dropped out without reserving his spot”, Stan the Stat noted.

[LL] “On the other hand, Bobby Baldwin, Fabian Quoss, and Vivek Rajkumar had promised to play but didn’t, so I think they all lost their deposits. They dropped $50,000, nearly the median household income in the U.S.1 to not play in a tournament. Quoss was last seen trying to satellite in during the event where Erick Lindgren and Connor Drinan won their seats.”

[RR] “And because the event sold out last time, they increased the cap from 48 players to 56.”

[LL] “Alas, though the Rio All-Suite Hotel & Casino may have changed its signage to the ‘Dew Drop Inn’, nobody dropped in at the last minute to play, even with late registration open for six hours after the tournament started. That left a field of just 42 players, a drop of six from two years ago.”

[SS] “A little disappointing, but in the end the event still raised nearly five million dollars for the One Drop foundation.”

[RR] “Talk about disappointing… I feel really bad for David Einhorn, who was drop-kicked out of the tournament by Sam Trickett just 45 minutes in! The businessman’s set of Jacks was done in by the 2012 runner-up’s Six-high straight.”

[LL] “No need to shed a single tear drop for Einhorn; he’s a hedge fund manager worth well over a billion dollars.”2

[SS] “It cost him $370 for every second he was in the tournament! But that jumpstarted Trickett on his way to ending Day One with the chip lead.”

[RR] “Which didn’t last long, as he dropped back to the pack on Day Two and was felted in 15th place when his pocket rockets were cracked by Negreanu’s trip Nines.”

[SS] “Then things got slow. With eight places being paid, they tried to play through the bubble on the middle day but eventually gave up with nine players remaining.”

[RR] “When the final day began, Negreanu was knocking people out like drop targets in a pinball game; he eventually ended the hopes of seven other players3, including bubble boy Tom Hall on the very first hand of the day, Cary Katz in 8th place, Scott Seiver in 6th, Tobias Reinkemeier in 5th, and Christoph Vogelsang in 3rd, who all dropped like flies within a few orbits of each other.”

[LL] “Fittingly, Negreanu made it to heads up, in a Duel of the Daniels against 24-year-old Daniel Colman. Colman had the drop on Negreanu with a 68,550,000 to 57,450,000 chip lead, but Kid Poker would grab the lead and soon have two-thirds of the chips.”

[SS] “Then Colman fought back and eventually built a big lead when his Ace-Four rivered a full house. Shortly thereafter, on the 46th heads-up hand, it would be Negreanu’s turn to hold Ace-Four.4 His two pairs had the lead on the flop when Colman dropped him to the canvas with a Ten on the turn to fill his inside straight, leaving the Canadian drawing unsuccessfully to four outs for a full house.”

[LL] “The 2014 Big One was definitely good to the last drop.”

[RR] “As much as I was rooting for Negreanu, I’m also happy that Colman won. He’s from Massachusetts, a small town called Holden near Worcester.”

[FF] “Maybe they should rename his home town from Holden to Holdem in his honor!”

[LL] “He wouldn’t want the publicity. He dropped a bombshell after winning by refusing interview requests.”

[SS] “Colman issued a statement5 but would just as soon drop out of sight.”

[LL] “Negreanu may have lost the heads-up battle, but he could teach the kid some a thing or two6 about handling fame.”

[SS] “Meanwhile, Negreanu’s own big payday moved him to the top of the all-time career tournament earnings list, dropping 2012 winner Antonio Esfandiari into second place.”

[SS] “Some other tidbits:

  • Only 17 players from the 2012 event returned in 2014. Five of them cashed the first time and five others the second time.
  • Of the ten amateur businessmen who entered the event, three cashed: Rick Salomon (4th), Paul Newey (7th), and Cary Katz (8th).
  • Germany was well-represented in the event. Five German pros played, and two cashed (Vogelsang in 3rd and Reinkemeier in 5th).
  • The all-time career earnings list is now headed by Negreanu (2nd place in 2014 One Drop) and Esfandiari (1st place in 2012 One Drop). Six of the top ten cashed in one of the two Big Ones (Colman jumped from 267th to 6th and Seiver from 19th to 10th; Trickett remained 5th, and Hellmuth dropped from 6th to 7th).
  • While World Series of Poker Main Event champions once dominated the career earnings list, only Hellmuth remains in the Top Ten. Eight former world champs now sit between 11th (Jonathan Duhamel) and 25th (Joe Cada).”7

Footnotes:

  1. The median annual household income in the U.S. was $51,017 in 2012.
  2. David Einhorn’s Wikipedia page says that he was worth $1.25 billion as of March 2013.
  3. Daniel Negreanu eliminated three more players than Ivey, Katz, and Salomon (4 each) and four more than Trickett and Colman (3 each).
  4. Third place finisher Vogelsang also busted out holding Ace-Four.
  5. Colman’s statement is quoted in this CardPlayer article.
  6. Negreanu commented at length in his blog.
  7. The others: Jamie Gold (13th), Joe Hachem (14th), Scotty Nguyen (15th), Carlos Mortensen (18th), Peter Eastgate (20th), and Gregory Merson (21st).
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