2015 November Nine Odds


[SS] “Place your bets!” Stan the Stat declared. “The 2015 November Nine odds have been set at Bovada.

November Nine Odds

Player Bovada
Odds
Percent
With Vig1
True
Percent
ICM2
Percent
Diff
Joe McKeehen 7/5 41.7% 33.1% 32.8% 0.4%
Zvi Stern 4/1 20.0% 15.9% 15.5% 0.4%
Neil Blumenfield 6/1 14.3% 11.4% 11.4% -0.1%
Pierre Neuville 6/1 14.3% 11.4% 10.9% 0.4%
Max Steinberg 7/1 12.5% 9.9% 10.5% -0.6%
Thomas Cannuli 12/1 7.7% 6.1% 6.4% -0.2%
Josh Beckley 12/1 7.7% 6.1% 6.1% 0.0%
Patrick Chan 25/1 3.8% 3.1% 3.2% -0.2%
Federico Butteroni 25/1 3.8% 3.1% 3.2% -0.2%
Totals 125.8% 100.0% 100.0%

Notes:

  • Unlike the past two years, this year’s Vegas odds barely differ from the chip stack sizes. J.C. Tran earned a whopping 8.0% strength bonus in 2013, while Jorryt van Hoof was plus 2.7% last year.
  • At 72, Neuville is the oldest November Niner ever, sixteen years older than Steven Gee in 2012. He could become the oldest Main Event winner, passing Moss, who was 66 in 1974. At 61, Blumenfield is the second oldest November Niner and helped make this group the oldest ever (average age of 35.3, topping 2009’s 34.6).
  • Six of the nine are Americans (Stern is Israeli, Neuville is Belgian, and Butteroni is Italian), and six are poker pros (all but Stern, Blumenfield, and Neuville), both typical numbers.
  • Joe McKeehen has the highest percentage of chips ever at 32.75%, beating Darvin Moon’s 30.24% in 2009 and Jonathan Duhamel’s 30.04% in 2010.3 Not surprisingly McKeehen also has the largest lead over second place with over double Stern’s chip count (Moon had 1.69 times Eric Buchman’s stack).
  • Only one player, Steinberg, has won a bracelet, which is exactly average. The 2008 and 2014 November Nines had no bracelets between them, and the 2012 and 2013 groups had two bracelet winners each. Both McKeehen and Neuville have won a little more money at the WSOP than Steinberg in their careers.
  • Cannuli, Beckley, Chan, and Butteroni all have a lower percentage of the chips than any winner has started from. Joe Cada entered the final table with 6.78% of the chips in 2009, and Martin Jacobson had 7.43% in 2014. Antoine Saout converted 4.88% of the chips into a 3rd place finish in 2009 though.”

[RR] “It’s hard to bet against the overwhelming chip leader”, Roderick the Rock admitted.

[LL] “If Stan takes the three foreigners”, Leroy the Lion suggested, “I’ll pick the remaining five Americans, and our odds will be about the same.”

[SS] “32.75% to 29.63% to 37.62% by chips? Not quite, Leroy. Give me Chan though, and it’s a deal. By the Vegas odds, we’d each have almost exactly a one-in-three chance.”

[RR] “What should the stakes be?”

[LL] “How about the losers serve the winner at our next tournament after the Main Event final table?”

[SS] “Food, drink, rebuys if necessary, and maybe a chair upgrade or two?”

[LL/RR] “I’m in!”

Footnotes:

  1. The Percent With Vig is simply the denominator of the odds divided by the sum of the numerator and denominator. The True Percent normalizes this by dividing by the total of 125.8%.
  2. ICM stands for Independent Chip Model.
  3. Moon finished 2nd while Duhamel won.

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