2016 November Nine Odds


[SS] “Do you guys want to bet on this year’s WSOP Main Event winner? We can divide the nine players into three pretty even groups”, Stan the Stat offered.

[RR/LL] “I’m in!” Roderick the Rock and Leroy the Lion agreed.

[SS] “Okay, here are the odds from the first place I could find them:

2016 November Nine Odds

Player Sportsbook
Odds
Percent
With Vig1
True
Percent
ICM2
Percent
Diff
Cliff Josephy 9/4 30.8% 26.1% 22.2% 3.9%
Qui Nguyen 4/1 20.0% 17.0% 20.2% -3.2%
Gordon Vayo 5/1 16.7% 14.1% 14.7% -0.5%
Kenny Hallaert 5/1 16.7% 14.1% 12.9% 1.3%
Michael Ruane 10/1 9.1% 7.7% 9.4% -1.7%
Vojtech Ruzicka 10/1 9.1% 7.7% 8.1% -0.4%
Griffin Benger 12/1 7.7% 6.5% 7.8% -1.3%
Jerry Wong 20/1 4.8% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0%
Fernando Pons 30/1 3.2% 2.7% 1.8% 0.9%
Totals 118.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Using the True Percent, the closest groups are:

  • Josephy and Benger: 32.6%
  • Nguyen, Hallaert, and Pons: 33.8%
  • Vayo, Ruane, Ruzicka, and Wong: 33.5%

Any strong preference?”

[RR] “You know I always like the favorite. Worked for me last year!”

[SS] “You got it. But Josephy is more like J.C. Tran, who bombed out in fifth three years ago than McKeehen last year. Josephy has a smaller chip lead, and he’s the only player with two bracelets.”

[LL] “I’m a pure numbers guys when I don’t have a good reason not to be, so I’ll take the middle group, which has the highest odds by a tiny bit.”

[SS] “Okay, I’m more than happy to take four players to two for each of you, since you know, Leroy, that Pons winning would be a miracle. Not only is the Spaniard the only amateur at the table, but no November Niner has ever come back from 9th position or less than 6.8% of chips to win.”

[LL] “I don’t really understand the markup on him.”

[SS] “Everyone loves a long shot, I guess.”

[RR] “Same stakes as last year? I really enjoyed collecting on that.”

[LL] “Sure, our serving you all night didn’t help you win the tournament in any case.”

[SS] “It just means that we’ll take extra pleasure in knocking you out!”

Footnotes:

  1. The Percent With Vig is simply the denominator of the odds divided by the sum of the numerator and denominator. The True Percent normalizes this by dividing by the total of 118.0%.
  2. ICM stands for Independent Chip Model.

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