2017 WSOP Main Event Final Table Odds

[SS] “It’s not the November Nine anymore, but can I interest you guys in a three-way final table bet again?”, Stan the Stat asked.

[RR] “Always interested”, Stan the Stat asserted.

[LL] “Depends on the bet”, Leroy the Lion hesitated.

[SS] “We’ll let you pick first, so you have nothing to complain about.”

[LL] “Sounds good.”

[SS] “Pick one of these three groups:

  1. Scott Blumstein (1st in chips) and Damian Salas (6th).
  2. John Hesp (2nd), Bryan Piccioli (4th), and Dan Ott (5th).
  3. Benjamin Pollak (3rd), Antoine Saout (7th), Jack Sinclair (8th), and Ben Lamb (9th).”1

[LL] “I’ll take the last group. I’m partial to Lamb. Tough unless you cook it right but always tasty. Plus, how can I go wrong with two players who’ve already been to the Main Event final table?”2

[SS] “Roderick, you get the next pick.”

[RR] “I have to go with the chip leader with Salas as a bonus.”

[SS] “Okay, that leaves me with the underrated Hesp and two medium stacks. I can live with that.”

2017 Final Table Odds

Player Coral
Odds
Percent
With Vig3
True
Percent
ICM4
Percent
Diff
Scott Blumstein 2/1 33.3% 28.2% 27.0% 1.2%
John Hesp 4/1 20.0% 16.9% 23.8% -6.9%
Benjamin Pollak 5/1 16.7% 14.1% 9.8% 4.3%
Bryan Piccioli 6/1 14.3% 12.1% 9.4% 2.7%
Dan Ott 18/1 5.3% 4.5% 7.3% -2.9%
Damian Salas 14/1 6.7% 5.6% 6.1% -0.5%
Antoine Saout 10/1 9.1% 7.7% 6.0% 1.7%
Jack Sinclair 25/1 3.8% 3.3% 5.6% -2.3%
Ben Lamb 10/1 9.1% 7.7% 5.0% 2.7%
Totals 118.2% 100.0% 100.0%

Footnotes:

  1. Working with the True Percent column in the table, the three groups have a fairly even chance of winning: 33.83% to 33.45% to 32.72%.
  2. Saout finished third in 2009, and Lamb finished third in 2011. Amazingly, there was almost a third player, but Michael Ruane was the final table bubble boy after his fourth place finish last year.
  3. The Percent With Vig is simply the denominator of the odds divided by the sum of the numerator and denominator. The True Percent normalizes this by dividing by the total of 118.2%.
  4. ICM stands for Independent Chip Model.

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