Stan’s Lists – Hand Group Analysis

[SS] Stan the Stat was always happy to talk numbers, and he had a table full of captive but eager listeners who were waiting for the tournament to begin. “Suppose the tightest player you’ve ever met opens for three times the big blind under the gun. You know he only does this with the very best hands, Sklansky’s Group One and Group Two only: pairs from Aces to Tens, suited Aces down to Jacks, suited King-Queen, and offsuit Ace-King. You’re the only caller from the big blind with a pair of Nines. You didn’t spike a set on the flop, but did get three undercards. How often are you behind? In other words, how often does the nit have a bigger pair in the hole?”

[LL] “Five different pairs, six ways each”, Leroy the Lion calculated out loud. “Four suited combinations, four ways each. And one offsuit combination, twelve ways. So 30 over 30 plus 16 plus 12 equals 30/58, just over half the time”.

[SS] “Perfect. 51.7% of the time. The looser the player is the lower that percentage will be.”

Percentage of Pairs in Hand Groups

Hand Groups Pairs
Group 1 85.7%
Group 2+ 51.7%
Group 3+ 39.1%
Group 4+ 28.0%
Group 5+ 18.8%
Group 6+ 19.6%
Group 7+ 14.6%
Group 8+ 9.4%
Group 9+ 6.9%
All 5.9%

[SS] “Even for Group 3, you don’t want to have to work the math out at the table, so this chart is worth memorizing, at least approximately. You’ll need to adjust for how much the player likes to play pairs though.”

[RR] “Yeah, like the crazies who will call a 4-bet for a quarter of their stack with pocket twos to set-mine”, Roderick the Rock confirmed.

[SS] “Here are two related lists for situations like when an overpair flops against your pocket Queens:”

Percentage of Aces in Hand Groups

Group Aces
1 35.7%
2+ 51.7%
3+ 50.0%
4+ 52.0%
5+ 39.8%
6+ 25.6%
7+ 21.4%
8+ 23.9%
9+ 17.5%
All 14.9%

Percentage of Kings in Hand Groups

Group Kings
1 35.7%
2+ 44.8%
3+ 37.0%
4+ 30.7%
5+ 28.9%
6+ 25.6%
7+ 21.4%
8+ 18.1%
9+ 17.5%
All 14.9%

[SS] “Some players will find an excuse to play any Ace, so you’ll have to adjust for that. But otherwise, you don’t have to be that afraid you’re beat against a loose player.”

[LL] “And some players overvalue suited Kings, assuming that they’ll rarely get taken out by the nut flush.”

[RR] “Until the one time it costs them their stack.

[SS] “Lastly, here are all the denominations together, so you can figure out things like, ‘How likely is it that my opponent has a Eight for a straight draw on a Nine-Seven-Six flop?'”

Percentage of Each Denomination in Hand Groups

Group A K Q J 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2
1 35.7% 35.7% 21.4% 21.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2+ 51.7% 44.8% 24.1% 17.2% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3+ 50.0% 37.0% 32.6% 19.6% 15.2% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4+ 52.0% 30.7% 30.7% 22.7% 22.7% 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5+ 39.8% 28.9% 28.9% 28.9% 28.9% 10.2% 3.9% 3.9% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
6+ 25.6% 25.6% 19.6% 22.6% 22.6% 17.6% 12.6% 7.5% 6.5% 6.5% 5.5% 3.5% 3.5%
7+ 21.4% 21.4% 16.9% 19.9% 19.9% 20.6% 16.9% 11.6% 10.1% 8.6% 7.1% 4.1% 2.6%
8+ 23.9% 18.1% 15.2% 16.6% 16.6% 16.1% 16.6% 17.6% 14.7% 10.8% 10.4% 8.4% 6.5%
9+ 17.5% 17.5% 17.5% 14.3% 13.2% 14.3% 14.3% 15.3% 16.4% 16.4% 13.2% 12.2% 11.1%
All 14.9% 14.9% 14.9% 14.9% 14.9% 14.9% 14.9% 14.9% 14.9% 14.9% 14.9% 14.9% 14.9%
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